President Biden, a year before the 2024 election, has Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states. Trailing behind Trump are massive doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.
Mr. Trump leads among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania by between four and 10 percentage points. Biden, Republican rival Mr. The results show Trump lost. Mr. The poll found Biden leading in Wisconsin by just two percentage points.
In 2020 Mr. In the six battlegrounds that Biden ran — the president trailed by an average of 48 to 44 percent.
A Times/Siena poll found discontent pulsating across the board, with a majority of voters backing Mr. Mr. The study also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that elected Biden is struggling. In 2020 Mr. Demographic groups that supported Biden are now competing more closely, as two-thirds of voters see the country moving in the wrong direction.
Voters under the age of 30 Mr. Mr. Biden is supported by just one percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is in the single digits and his advantage in urban areas over Mr. Half of Trump’s margin. Women are still Mr. Despite preferring Mr. Biden, men favored Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that has fueled many Democratic victories in recent years.
For black voters—Democrats, Mr. Biden will also have a long stronghold – now in these states Mr. Trump’s approval rating is 22 percent, a level not seen in presidential politics for Republicans in modern times.
All told, Mr Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four points in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden held a 2-point edge in Wisconsin.
A striking sign of the gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the swing state is so diverse, Mr. Biden was trailing, and he only led by six whites.
Mr. Biden and Mr. Polls show that Trump is both deeply—and similarly—disliked by the public. But voters who overwhelmingly say the nation is headed in the wrong direction are expressing their frustration with the president.
“The world is collapsing under Biden,” Mr. Spencer Weiss, a 53-year-old power substation specialist in Bloomsburg who supported Biden but now has some reservations about Mr. “I’d like to see someone who I think can be a positive role model leader for the country. But I think Trump at least has knowledge of him.
Mr. Biden still has a year to turn things around. Economic indicators are up, even if voters don’t accept them. Mr. Trump continues to polarize. And Mr. Biden’s well-financed campaign aimed to shore up his demographic weak spots. At that time Mr. Despite Biden’s poor approval ratings, the president’s advisers have repeatedly noted that Democrats have successfully limited the party’s losses in 2022.
However, Mr. Although Trump has been indicted four times on criminal charges and faces trial in 2024, Mr. The survey shows how Biden is starting next year with a deficit. If the poll results stand next November, Mr. Trump would be poised to receive more than 300 Electoral College votes, more than the 270 needed to win the White House.
Another ominous sign for Democrats is that voters of all income levels are turning to Mr. They felt that Mr. Biden’s policies had hurt them personally, while they felt that Mr. The results were resounding: voters gave Mr. Trump a 17-point advantage for helping him and an 18-point disadvantage for hurting Mr. Biden.
Turning 81 later this month, Mr. For Biden, being the oldest president in American history is an obvious liability. 71 percent said he was “too old” to be an effective president — a sentiment shared by every demographic and geographic group in the poll, Mr. Including a remarkable 54 percent of Biden’s own supporters.
In contrast, 77-year-old Mr. Only 19 percent of Trump’s supporters considered him too old, compared to 39 percent of voters overall.
Concerns about the president’s age and mental acuity — 62 percent said Mr. They have said that Biden lacks “mental acuity” – the start of a large collection of Biden’s weaknesses.
Voters said they trusted Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden on the economy by a margin of 59 percent to 37 percent, the largest gap on any issue. In economic matters Mr. The preference for Trump spanned voters, men and women, college graduates and those without, every age range and every income level.
That decision Mr. More complicated for Biden, as nearly twice as many voters said economic issues would determine their 2024 vote compared to social issues like abortion or guns. And those economic voters favored Mr. Trump by 60 percent to 32 percent.
Mr. The findings come as the president tours the country to brag about the state of the economy after Biden’s campaign spent millions of dollars promoting his record. “Guys, Bitenomics is just another way of saying the American Dream!” On a trip to Minnesota Mr. Biden announced Wednesday.
Voters clearly disagree. Only 2 percent of voters said the economy was doing well.
Voters Under 30 – 2020 Mr. A group that voted strongly for Biden – by an extraordinary 28 percentage point margin – said they trusted Mr Trump more on the economy. Years of inflation and now high interest rates have made mortgages far less affordable. Less than one percent of poll respondents under the age of 30 rated the current economy as excellent, including zero poll respondents in that age group in three states: Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin.
“I really had a lot of faith in Biden,” said Jahmerry Henry, 25, who packages wine in Albany, Ga. “You can’t be worse than Trump. But as the years go by, with inflation, the war in Ukraine, recently Israel and I think our borders are not secure.
Now Mr. Henry plans to support Mr Trump.
In 2020 Mr. “I don’t see anything he’s done to benefit us,” said Patricia Flores, 39, of Reno, Nev., who voted for Biden but won’t back him in 2024.
In 2020, Mr. Biden’s road to victory.
Polls show Mr Biden is stronger in industrial northern states than in the more diverse Sun Belt.
And his affects spanned a wide range of issues.
Voters beat Mr. Biden by 12 points on immigration, 12 points on national security and 11 points on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While a 58 percent majority supported more economic and military aid to Ukraine — which Mr. Consistent with Biden’s policy — it doesn’t benefit the president on the broader questions of dealing with foreign affairs.
“I don’t think he’s the right guy to step in with these world leaders who don’t respect him or fear him,” said Travis Waterman, 33, a home remodeler in Phoenix. He is Mr. in 2020. Voted for Biden but now sees him as “weak” and prefers Mr Trump.
The gender gap in national security is huge. Men Mr. 62 percent to 33 percent favored Trump; Ladies Mr. 47 to 46 percent preferred Biden.
Mr. Biden’s strongest issue is abortion, where voters like Mr. They trust Trump by nine percentage points. In dealing with “democracy” in a very amorphous manner Mr. Mr. Biden won voters’ trust. He maintained a three-point lead over Trump.
Mr. Biden has maintained poor showings in polls before. In fact, ahead of the midterm elections in October 2022, the president’s job approval rating was nearly the same as it is now. His party still managed to lose fewer seats than expected in the House and gained one seat in the Senate, in part by portraying Republican candidates as extremists.
Today, Mr. The extent to which voters are turned off by Trump’s persona and bombast — which has helped hold together a fractious Democratic coalition for years — appears to have abated. Only 46 percent of voters, Mr. They have said that Biden has the right qualities to be president, which Mr. Far more than the 43 percent who said so about Trump. Mr Trump will be in the spotlight in 2024, a growing presence, including his criminal convictions, that will remind voters why they were repulsed by him.
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was conducted by telephone using live operators from October 22 to November 3, 2023. With all states combined, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for each state is between 4.4 and 4.8 percentage points. Cross tabs and instructions are available here.
Camille Baker, Alice McFadden And Ruth Igielnik Contributed report.