Lock him up? A new poll has some bad news for Trump

Americans take these cases seriously — especially the Justice Department’s 2020 election case — and most people are skeptical of Trump’s claim that he is the victim of a legally baseless witch hunt or a broad, multi-jurisdictional effort to “weaponize” him, the polls suggest. Law enforcement officials against him.

Also, public sentiment in some areas — including how quickly to prosecute and imprison Trump if convicted — is moving against the former president compared to a previous POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos poll conducted in June. This latest poll was conducted from August 18 to August 21, about two and a half weeks after Trump’s second federal indictment and several days after Trump was criminally indicted in Fulton County. The poll included a sample of 1,032 adults age 18 or older who were interviewed online; This has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent for all respondents.

Here are some notable findings from our latest survey.

1. Most Americans believe Trump should stand trial before the 2024 election

On Monday, Trump’s lawyers will confront federal prosecutors before U.S. District Judge Tanya Sudkan about when to schedule his trial in the Justice Department’s 2020 election case — a high-stakes dispute that could have dramatic implications for the 2024 election. Federal prosecutors have proposed Trump’s lawyers will begin their trial on January 2, 2024 have opposed The trial is due to take place in April 2026. If Trump gets his way, not by chance, it will give him plenty of time to complete his re-election bid and, if successful, close the case after recapturing the White House.

Americans are much closer to the Justice Department’s position than Trump’s. Fifty-nine percent of poll respondents said a federal investigation into Trump’s 2020 election tampering case should take place early next year before the 2024 Republican primaries begin. A slightly higher number – 61 per cent of all respondents – said the inquiry should be held before the general election next November.

There was a predictable partisan divide between Democrats and Republicans, with nearly 90 percent of Democratic respondents seeking an early hearing date and About a third of Republican respondents agree.

However, the reaction of independents may be the most threatening to Trump. Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of independents say Trump should stand trial before next November — suggesting particular interest and attention to a case that effectively accuses Trump of trying to steal the last election. By way of a rough comparison, when we asked a similar question in June following Trump’s indictment by the Justice Department in Florida over possession of classified documents, less than half (48 percent) of independent respondents said they should take up the case. Place before next November.

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2. Half of the country believes Trump is guilty of pending charges

Claims by Trump and his supporters that he is the victim of a “witch hunt” also seem to have little impact on the opinions of Americans in the general population. Half the country — including a majority of Democrats and roughly half of independents — believes Trump is guilty of the series of charges.

Of the four pending cases, the Manhattan district attorney’s case produced slightly less strong numbers, with a total of 48 percent of respondents saying they believed Trump was guilty in the case, which allegedly involved payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. .

Befitting our polarized country, Bare majorities said they believe Trump is guilty of other cases — 51 percent of the Justice Department and Fulton County cases pending in the 2020 election, and 52 percent of the Justice Department’s classified documents case.

3. A conviction in the DOJ’s 2020 election case will hurt Trump in the general election

Our latest poll also makes clear that it would not help Trump’s presidential bid if he were convicted of a criminal scheme to steal the last election, while asking the American people to return him to the White House.

A majority of respondents (44 percent) said a conviction in the case would have no effect on their support for Trump, but the numbers tilted decisively against Trump among those who said the outcome would inform their vote. Nearly a third of respondents (32 percent) said they would be less likely to support Trump if convicted in the case, including a third of independents (34 percent).

Only 13 percent of respondents said a conviction would make them more likely to support Trump, and that number includes mostly Republicans.

4. Trump’s numbers have considerable room to get worse

While the news about Trump’s legal troubles seems like a tsunami, a significant portion of the public is still learning about the former president’s criminal activities.

Most respondents said they understood the charges in pending cases well or somewhat well, with a higher number — more than 60 percent — saying the same about federal cases. But somewhere between a quarter and a third of respondents said they did not understand the allegations in the lawsuits.

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That could change as the cases proceed through the lawsuits — especially if one or more cases go to trial before next November.

Even if Trump manages to avoid convictions, it is reasonable to assume that the media coverage and the facts revealed in any trial will, on balance, not help Trump as a political matter. Criminal defendants generally don’t look good at the end of highly publicized trials, even if they get off at the end of the day.

If there is a strong defense to the allegations as a matter of fact, Trump and his lawyers have yet to provide it. For example, after the latest indictment in Fulton County, Trump publicly said he would hold a press conference and release a statement proving his innocence.

The zealous Americans were eventually hanged. Two days after his announcement, Trump fired the journalist.

5. Half the country believes Trump should go to prison if convicted in the DOJ’s Jan. 6 case.

We also asked respondents what punishment Trump would face in the Justice Department’s 2020 election case if convicted. Fifty percent of respondents said he should go to prison, including a majority of Democrats (87 percent) and a small majority of independents (51 percent).

Another large number of respondents were open to alternative sanctions: 16 percent of respondents said Trump should receive probation but no jail time, and 12 percent of respondents said he should simply receive a financial penalty if convicted. Only 18 percent (mostly Republicans) said they should not be fined if convicted.

The results suggest that Americans may view Trump’s conduct surrounding the Jan. 6 riots and his attempt to overturn the election as more serious than the criminal charges filed against Trump earlier this year. When we asked respondents comparable questions in June, 43 percent of respondents said Trump should go to jail in the Justice Department’s classified documents case, and 40 percent said Trump should go to jail in the Manhattan district attorney case. Cash to Stormy Daniels.

6. Trump and the GOP’s defense of ‘weaponization’ seems to have limited traction

Trump and his Republican allies have been saying for months that the Justice Department has been “weaponized” against him by President Joe Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland. We asked a series of questions to try to understand a little about what Americans make of this claim. The results for the Trump team were mixed.

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Fifty-nine percent of respondents — including nearly two-thirds of independents — said the Justice Department’s decision to indict Trump in the 2020 election case was based on a fair assessment of the evidence and the law. At the same time, however, 44 percent of respondents — including 20 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of independents — said the decision was based on trying to gain a political advantage for Biden.

In fact, more people believe Trump is guilty of weaponizing the legal system than Biden. Fifty-three percent of respondents — including 56 percent of independents — said the Trump administration has actively used the Justice Department to prosecute political opponents with little or no evidence of actual wrongdoing. The comparable figure for the Biden administration was 45 percent among all respondents, including 43 percent of independents.

7. Trump is the prevailing villain in the story of his impeachment

To test further Do the allegations help Trump?We asked respondents whether they had favorable or unfavorable opinions about the actions, statements, and behavior of key stakeholders in federal cases, including not just Trump, but also Biden, Garland, special counsel Jack Smith, and the Justice Department.

The results didn’t exactly help Trump. Respondents gave Trump a net favorable rating of -31 percent—by far the worst figure in this battery of questions (27 percent favorable and 58 percent unfavorable). Biden fared much better than Trump, but with a net favorable rating of -9 percent (36 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable).

In contrast, the Department of Justice appears to be slightly ahead in the scheme of things, but rarely is it. Respondents reported a net positive favorable rating of 7 percent (40 percent favorable and 33 percent unfavorable) for the Justice Department. Smith’s conduct received a net positive favorable rating of 6 percent (26 percent favorable and 20 percent unfavorable).

And what about the famously active and mildly moderate evening? Perhaps fittingly for the man, Garland came out exactly even, earning a 0 percent net favorable rating for his handling of the cases (22 percent favorable and 22 percent unfavorable).

Notably, the majority of respondents did not seem to agree or disagree with how Smith and Garland handled these cases. Both men are still largely in the background. That could change when Trump comes to trial.

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